Playoff football is built for certainty. A top seed earns home-field, a dominant defense travels, and a two-score lead late usually ends the conversation. Then every so often, a game goes completely haywire. A team that looked cooked finds one crack, then another, and suddenly the favorite is the one playing tight.
What makes the wins below different from a normal upset is the feeling inside the stadium and at home: This one is over. The score says it. The matchup says it. The body language says it. And then a single moment changes everything. A blown coverage, a surprise onside kick, a missed field goal, a strip-sack, a fourth-down conversion that shouldn’t work.
In no particular order, these are nine postseason wins where the expected story got shredded in real time. Some are huge comebacks. Some are giant underdogs winning clean. All of them are the kind of shocks people still argue about years later, because they did far more than collapse a bracket.
1. Bills over Oilers (1992-1993 AFC Wild Card)
Down 35–3, Buffalo looked finished before halftime. Jim Kelly was out, and backup Frank Reich was stuck in a game that already felt like a post-mortem. Then the Bills turned the third quarter into chaos with quick touchdowns, a pick-six, another score, and suddenly the deficit was gone. It finished 41–38 in overtime, still the biggest playoff comeback ever. The lesson was brutal: Even a 32-point lead can evaporate fast.
2. Patriots over Falcons (Super Bowl LI)
Atlanta had New England pinned at 28–3 in the third quarter, and the game felt like a coronation. The Patriots needed everything, including a no-catch that somehow became a catch, a strip-sack that flipped momentum, and a steady diet of short throws that kept the clock from killing them. By the time it hit overtime, the Falcons looked stunned. New England won 34–28, and “28–3” became a permanent part of sports vocabulary.
3. Colts over Chiefs (2013-2014 AFC Wild Card)
Kansas City jumped to a 38–10 lead, and it wasn’t a fluke. The Chiefs were faster, cleaner, and hitting big plays. Then the Colts got the kind of swing that rewrites a night: Andrew Luck fumbled near the goal line, recovered it himself, and scored anyway. From there it was a full stampede. Indianapolis piled on points, the game turned into a track meet, and the Colts won 45–44 in a finish that felt unreal.
4. Jaguars over Chargers (2022-2023 AFC Wild Card)
The Chargers took a 27–0 lead, and it looked like Trevor Lawrence was in a nightmare. He threw four interceptions in the first half, and the stadium felt like it was waiting for the mercy rule. Then Jacksonville kept scoring, and Los Angeles kept stalling. The deficit shrank one drive at a time until it was a one-score game with everything on the line. The Jaguars finished the comeback 31–30 with a late field goal, and the Chargers spent the offseason answering the same question: How?
5. Seahawks over Packers (2014-2015 NFC Championship)
Green Bay was up 19–7 with about five minutes left and controlled the game. Seattle looked stuck, then suddenly got lifelines by way of a touchdown, a critical onside kick recovery, and one of the strangest scoring bursts you’ll ever see in a conference title game. The Seahawks forced overtime, and once the game crossed that line, the stadium felt like it belonged to them. Seattle won 28–22 (OT), and the Packers’ collapse became a shorthand warning for “finish the job.”
6. Ravens over Broncos (2012-2013 AFC Divisional)
Denver was at home, favored big, and playing like it. With less than a minute left, the Broncos were ahead 35–28 and Baltimore had almost no time. Then came the deep strike that still gets replayed: Joe Flacco hit Jacoby Jones down the sideline to tie it. The game dragged into double overtime, and the Ravens survived 38–35 (2OT). It was shocking because it didn’t take a long comeback. It took one moment, one busted coverage, and a favorite that suddenly couldn’t breathe.
7. Falcons over Vikings (1998-1999 NFC Championship)
Minnesota was 15–1 and loaded, and their kicker Gary Anderson hadn’t missed all season. Late in the fourth quarter, the Vikings had a chance to go up two scores, which would have put the game in a near-lock. Then Anderson missed. Atlanta didn’t waste the opening. The Falcons tied it, pushed it to overtime, and won 30–27 on a field goal. The upset wasn’t just Atlanta winning. It was watching a “guaranteed” point turn into the exact domino that changed everything.
8. Giants over Patriots (Super Bowl XLII)
New England came in 18–0, chasing perfection, and the Giants were treated like a good story that was about to end. Instead, New York’s pass rush kept Tom Brady uncomfortable, and the whole game stayed tight enough to make one miracle matter. That miracle was the helmet catch, a play that still feels like it violates physics. Moments later, the Giants took the lead for good and won 17–14, turning a historic Patriots season into the most famous “almost” in football.
9. Jets over Colts (Super Bowl III)
This is the blueprint for modern Super Bowl upset talk. The Colts were expected to handle the AFL champion Jets. Instead, the Jets controlled the pace and made the game feel uncomfortable from the jump. Joe Namath stayed calm, the defense kept the Colts from exploding, and the Jets won 16–7. The shock wasn’t just the score. It was what it meant: The AFL could win on the biggest stage, and the NFL’s “sure thing” wasn’t sure at all.